Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸
IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes
going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that
the fit is good if it is shown.
The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.
Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $1,329,260$ on 2020-05-10
Best fit exponential: \(9.33 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.019t}\) (doubling rate \(16.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,376,334.9}{1 + 10^{-0.046 (t - 41.9)}}\) (asimptote \(1,376,334.9\))
Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $79,526$ on 2020-05-10
Best fit exponential: \(4.75 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.021t}\) (doubling rate \(14.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{82,783.8}{1 + 10^{-0.052 (t - 40.4)}}\) (asimptote \(82,783.8\))
Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $1,033,565$ on 2020-05-10
Start date 2020-03-06 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $70,091$ on 2020-05-10
Best fit exponential: \(3.76 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.020t}\) (doubling rate \(14.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{77,988.8}{1 + 10^{-0.043 (t - 46.6)}}\) (asimptote \(77,988.8\))
Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $4,991$ on 2020-05-10
Best fit exponential: \(155 \times 10^{0.028t}\) (doubling rate \(10.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{5,806.4}{1 + 10^{-0.055 (t - 43.2)}}\) (asimptote \(5,806.4\))
Start date 2020-03-06 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $32,991$ on 2020-05-10
Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $8,448$ on 2020-05-10
Best fit exponential: \(613 \times 10^{0.020t}\) (doubling rate \(15.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{9,363.0}{1 + 10^{-0.042 (t - 41.5)}}\) (asimptote \(9,363.0\))
Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $244$ on 2020-05-10
Best fit exponential: \(15.3 \times 10^{0.021t}\) (doubling rate \(14.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{260.3}{1 + 10^{-0.046 (t - 41.5)}}\) (asimptote \(260.3\))
Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $3,517$ on 2020-05-10
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $10,347$ on 2020-05-10
Best fit exponential: \(630 \times 10^{0.021t}\) (doubling rate \(14.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{12,298.8}{1 + 10^{-0.039 (t - 43.6)}}\) (asimptote \(12,298.8\))
Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $388$ on 2020-05-10
Best fit exponential: \(46.9 \times 10^{0.018t}\) (doubling rate \(16.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{392.8}{1 + 10^{-0.050 (t - 29.7)}}\) (asimptote \(392.8\))
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $7,196$ on 2020-05-10
Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $35,022$ on 2020-05-10
Best fit exponential: \(845 \times 10^{0.031t}\) (doubling rate \(9.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{66,967.3}{1 + 10^{-0.042 (t - 52.3)}}\) (asimptote \(66,967.3\))
Start date 2020-03-28 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $3,465$ on 2020-05-10
Best fit exponential: \(117 \times 10^{0.034t}\) (doubling rate \(8.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{5,882.9}{1 + 10^{-0.049 (t - 41.1)}}\) (asimptote \(5,882.9\))
Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $9,733$ on 2020-05-10
Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $1,972$ on 2020-05-10
Best fit exponential: \(49.9 \times 10^{0.030t}\) (doubling rate \(10.1\) days)
Start date 2020-03-26 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $108$ on 2020-05-10
Best fit exponential: \(10.3 \times 10^{0.023t}\) (doubling rate \(13.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{200.4}{1 + 10^{-0.033 (t - 43.2)}}\) (asimptote \(200.4\))
Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $1,661$ on 2020-05-10
Start date 2020-03-20 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $1,766$ on 2020-05-10
Best fit exponential: \(220 \times 10^{0.019t}\) (doubling rate \(15.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,847.9}{1 + 10^{-0.055 (t - 29.2)}}\) (asimptote \(1,847.9\))
Start date 2020-03-26 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $77$ on 2020-05-10
Best fit exponential: \(8.62 \times 10^{0.022t}\) (doubling rate \(13.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{82.3}{1 + 10^{-0.057 (t - 27.7)}}\) (asimptote \(82.3\))
Start date 2020-03-20 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $496$ on 2020-05-10
Start date 2020-03-13 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $502$ on 2020-05-10
Best fit exponential: \(20.5 \times 10^{0.025t}\) (doubling rate \(12.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{565.2}{1 + 10^{-0.063 (t - 42.6)}}\) (asimptote \(565.2\))
Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $9$ on 2020-05-10
Start date 2020-03-13 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $403$ on 2020-05-10
